The Z Files: Changing Expectations

We're just past the one-quarter mark, the perfect time to assess players whose expectations have changed significantly since their initial projections. Twenty batters will be reviewed, 10 who are playing better than expected, 10 underperforming.

The filter for the first set is batters in my original Top 150 whose rest-of-season projected earnings are the greatest. The second set are hitters with the highest increase. Projected earnings are used in lieu of ranking to assure the top players make the list. Remember, a $10 difference for a first-round player can be five or six spots, while it can be 10 rounds for lower ranked players. Injured players were excluded.

Better than expectations

Paul DeJong, St, Louis Cardinals: Some may identify DeJong's BABIP as lucky, and they are likely right. However, other than last season, he's exhibited the ability to maintain an above average hit rate. In fact, based on Statcast data, DeJong incurred more bad luck in 2018 than he's enjoyed so far this campaign. Even if the BABIP regresses, DeJong's improved approach portends a soft landing. He's fanning around 10 percent less than his career level while walking five percent more. He's even swiped three bags, tripling last year's total.

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers: Bellinger's power has waned the past couple of weeks, but he continues to pound the ball with regularity. Of course, a BABIP around .400 is due for a downturn, but like DeJong, Bellinger is fanning significantly less than normal along with walking a little more. Especially after seeing pine time with a lefty on the hill in last year's postseason, Bellinger's 1.006 OPS versus southpaws through Thursday's action is eye-popping. Add in seven swipes, already halfway to Bellinger's career best set last season, and he's been one of the top fantasy players to date. So much so, in fact, he's a legitimate first-round option in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Second Chance contest, drafting the week of Memorial Day weekend.

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers: My original intent here was to dust off my "regression is out of the player's control, not a synonym for playing worse" harangue. Been there, done that. Instead, I'm going to confess I messed up big time in the spring. Granted, my original expectation still pales in comparison to Yelich's current production, but I initially had him as my third overall player. I went so far as to crowd-source my projection on Twitter, which played a small part in my making up a reason to dock some homers and batting average. He was still a first rounder, just not top three, which would have been prescient. If you're swinging for the fences, which should be the approach in the upcoming NFBC contest, Yelich is the top player on the board. For what it's worth, by the numbers, his HR/FB is about the same as last season but he's fanning a bit less and putting more balls in the air. And, when he's not trotting around the bases after clearing the fence, he's perfect in eight stolen base attempts.

Michael Brantley, Houston Astros: Some of Brantley's elevation is making it through the first quarter unscathed so he's less of an injury risk, though many may contend his health concern was overblown since he's past his shoulder woes and the injuries since have been of the fluky variety. That said, his performance is also better, though there are signs he may have been blessed with some good fortune. Brantley's HR/FB is double what he managed in recent seasons despite a dip in hard-hit rate and a steady launch angle. If you're wondering if the bump in HR/FB could be driven by Minute Maid Park, on paper Progressive Field is better for lefty power, though the affect isn't felt linearly.

Leonys Martin, Cleveland Indians: This is all about the original tempered expectation and not a reflection of Martin's numbers, since he's had a sluggish start to the season. Still, in the embattled Indians outfield, Martin is playing regularly, even if his spot at the bottom of the order reduces his chances to produce. Especially after what he went through last year, I wish there were some positive signs with respect to better play, but Martin's underlying numbers aren't optimistic. The Tribe is bereft of better options, though Oscar Mercado is up and Bradley Zimmer is on the way. Hmm, maybe I better take another look at how much Martin will play.

Jonathan Villar, Baltimore Orioles: No need to belabor. As discussed in a Z Files a few weeks ago, it was a mistake to expect anything less than a full season from Villar as the Orioles have no other viable options at the keystone. His power-speed combo plays well in this landscape, especially with steals dropping even more.

Jeff McNeil, New York Mets: This is another playing time beneficiary, though I've also raised my baseline batting average. That said, McNeil was expected to run a little but so far, he's 0-for-4 as a would-be pilferer. In order to attain the expectation over the remaining three quarters of the season, he's going to need to flip the script. This is a concern as my research suggests early success rates dictate how much a player will run the rest of the season.

Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates: In retrospect, what was I thinking? In the battle of first baseman with the initials J.B., I ranked Justin Bour ahead of Bell. Bour is in Triple-A while Bell has the National League on blast. He has always been an imposing presence, but he profiled as a line-drive, gap hitter and not a slugger. Welcome to the launch angle revolution, as Bell's new aggressive approach has resulted in more whiffs, but he's scorching the ball and doing it with added loft. The early data favors Bell maintaining this approach and success for the season. The question comes next season, as history has shown batters often lose some of the gains. Even in one of the toughest parks for power, look for Bell to continue muscling up.

George Springer, Houston Astros: Like Bell, Springer is fanning a tad more, but everything else is up and fully supported by Statcast. He's also a bit friskier on the base paths with four swipes. Most importantly, the top of the Astros' order, even without Jose Altuve, is back in a groove, resulting in an upgrade in the often-overlooked runs and RBI categories.

Luke Voit, New York Yankees: Much of the increased expectation relates to playing time, though his performance has aided the boost as I wasn't a Voit truther in the spring. Truth be told, I'm still leery. However there just isn't any competition for him, especially with Miguel Andujar opting for season-ending surgery. Along with a clear path to playing time, Voit is owed a few points of batting average as his BABIP is a little low according to Statcast data.

Disappointments

Mallex Smith, Seattle Mariners: Smith has been recalled since the last time I ran rest-of-season numbers, but I factored in the expectation he'd be back in the bigs, so his fall is more than a loss of playing time. While expecting a repeat of last season's .366 BABIP was optimistic, Smith's unique batted ball profile and speed supports an above average mark. He was sporting a .234 mark before being send down, along with a hefty 30 percent strikeout rate. While an improvement is likely in his second stint with the Mariners, Smith's batting average and resulting steals have to be tempered relative to initial expectations. It should be noted he earned his way back, hitting .333 with a .375 OBP for Triple-A Tacoma, stealing seven bases without being caught.

Jose Peraza, Cincinnati Reds: For most players, lofting more batted balls is a good thing in today's environment. Peraza isn't like most players, so his 50 percent fly ball rate is crushing his BABIP, and hence his opportunities to run. Maybe he should get the Willie Mays Hayes treatment and drop and do twenty whenever he hits the ball in the air. The thing is, even last year his ground ball rate was low, relative to players relying more on their legs than biceps. Peraza is losing playing time to Derek Dietrich and is being outproduced by Jose Iglesias. Who knows what will transpire when Scooter Gennett is back?

Ian Desmond, Colorado Rockies: For years, the party line has been Desmond needs to hit more balls in the air. Lo and behold, he's doing just that, but the results aren't following. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are fine, so the usual analysis would be "hang in there, things will get better as the weather warms and the ball really begins to carry at altitude". Well, this is still the best approach, but the problem is Colorado has other options and may not be as patient. The other factors dragging Desmond down a notch is an elevated strikeout rate and the fact he's attempted just one steal and was caught. The combo of not running and losing playing time has tempered expectations.

Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers: Shaw's injury was recent so there's plenty of banked performance to reduce expectations going forward, especially with Keston Hiura in the picture. Shaw's fanning at a clip north of 30 percent and when he does make contact, it's with less authority. He posted consecutive 30-plus homer seasons with Milwaukee so there was reason to be optimistic heading into 2019. Now, he'll be fighting for playing time when he returns from a sprained right wrist.

Brian Dozier, Washington Nationals: Dozier was coming off a horrific season, so of course there's a lot of "I told you so" chatter out there. Yeah, thanks. Get back to me with all the times the same backseat analysis was wrong. Anyway, Dozier's contact rate has dropped and since he never has been better than middle of the pack in hard-hit rate, he needs all the contact he can muster. Gravity alone should pull Dozier's performance up, but the Nationals have other options and could consider his one-year, $9 million deal a sunk cost. Wilmer Difo and Howie Kendrick are both options at the keystone, along with a possible return for Carter Kieboom.

Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves: Like Shaw, Inciarte's recent injury isn't the reason for reduced production, so he makes the list. Also like Shaw, his playing time is under threat from a top prospect with Austin Riley's promotion. A combination of less contact and an unlucky BABIP tanked Inciarte's average, resulting in only three steals in four tries. Especially in today's power-hitting landscape, so long as the outfield defense doesn't take a big hit with Riley in left and Ronald Acuna manning center, the Braves are better off with a slugger like Riley than Inciarte.

Wilmer Flores, Arizona Diamondbacks: While I'll cop to being higher on Flores than most, it wasn't like I pegged him as a must-have. He was still a late-round dart in the corner infield, with the expectation of gaining MI eligibility. Shamefully, I didn't have the prescience to foresee Ketel Marte seamlessly jumping between second base and the outfield with Adam Jones playing regularly, pushing Flores to more of a platoon role. His underlying metrics aren't terrible, he's just not playing every day as initially envisioned.

Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers: Chalk this up to another mistake with my initial expectation. A projection is supposed to be a weighted average of all plausible outcomes. I didn't amply account for the possibility Aguilar would have a slow start, with Eric Thames available to usurp playing time. It's not that Aguilar has fallen into the short side of a platoon, but it doesn't feel right to assign full playing time the rest of the season. Plus, even though his production has edged up lately, he'll be hard-pressed to approach last season's pace. That said, the signs are still encouraging, as Aguilar's plate skills are improved over last season. He's a good example of why it's important to remember average exit velocity is just that, an average. His mark is up over last season, but his hard-hit rate has declined. That is, the variance around the average is down this season, accounting for the drop in power.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians: Last season, after the break, Ramirez hit .160 on curves and .045 on sliders. So far this season, he's hitting .250 against both. Instead he can't hit fastballs as evidenced by a .108 average. Ramirez was a consensus first round pick in the spring, in play as early as No. 3. He may not be a top-three round pick in the NFBC Second Chance contest. The inconsistency renders Ramirez the biggest head-scratcher of the first quarter of the season.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Red: Maybe the right call was being one year too early than too late after all. While there were signs of decline, they didn't portend this much of a drop. Great plate patience is all well and good, provided you drive the ball when you swing. That is, the utility of Votto's approach wasn't solely his ability to get on base, it was maximizing output when he put the ball in play. That element of his game is waning, if not gone.