Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Prospect rankings will receive a major makeover with the plethora of promotions thus far in 2019.  With Nick Senzel and Nate Lowe recently ascending to the big leagues, the argument can be made that nearly half of the top-25 prospects in baseball have gotten the call to the majors since the season began.

Still, plenty of firepower is left in the minors, and the best part is the constant replenishment of talent.  Will Yordan Alvarez and Brendan Rodgers move on to greener pastures shortly?  Is Mitch Keller finally ready for primetime?  Can Dylan Cease force the hand of the White Sox?  Is Luis Robert now on the fast track to the bigs?  Will Ryan Mountcastle save the Orioles?  These questions and more will be answered as the season rolls along.  For now, let's look at some other phenoms making headlines in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Keston Hiura, 2B, MIL – Hiura is likely next in line for a promotion to the big leagues.  The 22-year-old has been scalding the ball lately, batting .471 with five home runs, 11 RBIs and three steals in the last 10 games for Triple-A San Antonio.  Although certainly the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League have helped to boost his power numbers, Hiura would be on pace to destroy his career-high 13 home runs set in a single season in 2018.  He already has 10 home runs and 24 RBIs through 30 games.  The added power only serves to confirm that Hiura is the real deal, and he should make his way to Milwaukee shortly.

Drew Waters, OF, ATL – Waters has an aggressive approach at the dish, which has served him well at the lower levels of the minors.  Even at Double-A, he is hitting .342 through 27 games.  He has been even better lately, batting .405 in his last 10 games.  Waters has two potential 20-20 ability along with the ability to handle all three outfield positions, making him an elite outfield prospect, particularly with his surprising ability to hit for average.  The only question that remains is will his lack of selectivity at the dish harm him as he continues his march toward the big leagues, or is he simply a special talent with a knack for putting the bat on the ball?  The switch-hitter has faced little resistance, and with Nick Markakis on a one-year deal for the Braves in left field, Waters could find himself in the big leagues in no time.

Xavier Edwards, SS, SD – Edwards profiles as a prototypical leadoff hitter.  Still a teenager, Edwards is hitting .368 with a .436 on-base percentage in 24 games for Low-A Fort Wayne.  Edwards has more walks (11) than strikeouts (10).  Edwards also has speed to burn, swiping nine bases already.  The fact that he has been caught seven times as well should actually scare the opposition; imagine when he learns the techniques and nuances to become an elite base stealer.  The switch-hitting shortstop is batting a crisp .500 in his last 10 games.  The speed and command of the strike zone for Edwards has made him a player to watch.

Alec Bohm, 3B, PHI – The Phillies were a bit conservative with Bohm, as the polished college hitter was sent to Low-A Lakewood despite being drafted out of Wichita State in the first round in 2018.  Bohm responded with a fast start, slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs, 11 RBIs and three steals in 22 games at Low-A.  That resulted in a quick promotion, where Bohm continues to hit (7-for-20) in his first few games.  Bohm has both the ability to hit for average as well as power, and he is not afraid to take a walk.  He may end up playing first base due to limitations at third, though if he keeps hitting, the Phillies will eventually find a place for him to play.

CHECK STATUS

Colton Welker, 3B, COL – For some reason, Welker does not receive nearly enough pub.  He has never hit below .329 at any level since entering the minors in 2016.  Yes, you read that correctly.  Perhaps because he is blocked at the hot corner by Nolan Arenado, there is not a place on the diamond for him to technically play in the field.  In addition, he does not possess monstrous power, though if he plays his home games at Coors Field that should alleviate any concern.  Daniel Murphy is aging and cannot seem to stay healthy, so a shift to first base may eventually be in the cards for Welker.  For now, the Rockies appear content to let him move station to station, level by level.  He will continue to rake in the minors, with a 2020 debut possibly on the horizon.

Edward Cabrera, P, MIA – Cabrera has had three consecutive outings of scoreless ball after a lackluster first start to the season.  Most notably, he fanned 13 batters in his most recent start last week in 6.2 innings.  That pushed his K:BB to 31:6 in 22 innings with a 1.64 ERA over that span.  The 21-year-old has been difficult to hit in 2019, having held the opposition to a .151 BAA.  Cabrera is 6-foot-4 with room to fill out.  He can already hit 100 mph on the radar gun, and his curveball/slider is emerging as a wipeout pitch.  His changeup remains a work in progress, though if that pitch along with his control continues to improve, Cabrera could see his stock really skyrocket.

Nico Hoerner, SS, CHI – The polished shortstop from Stanford dominated in the Arizona Fall League despite just being drafted last year.  Hoerner parlayed that performance into an aggressive assignment to Double-A Tennessee, where he continued to rake.  Hoerner hit .300/.391/.500 with one home runs, six RBIs and one stolen base through 18 games.  Unfortunately, he was struck by a pitch on the left wrist at the end of April and has been on the injured list since that time.  Hoerner is still bidding to become the first member of his draft class to reach the big leagues, and that still could happen, though this minor injury could ultimately delay his ascension.  Still, Hoerner projects for double-digit home runs and steals, along with a keen ability to make contact.  He remains the Cubs top prospect by a mile, and he should return to live game action shortly.

Anthony Kay, P, NYM – Kay is a bit older in prospect circles, but the 24-year-old had Tommy John right after he was drafted in the first round in 2016.  Kay did not even throw a pitch in the Mets organization until 2018, but the 24-year-old southpaw showed strikeout potential and fairly decent control for someone coming off Tommy John surgery.  Kay has been even better to start the 2019 campaign, posting a 1.52 ERA and 33:14 K:BB in 29.2 innings.  It remains to be seen if the walks will eventually come back to haunt Kay, though he has managed to limit the overall damages thus far.  He was born in the same town and went to the same high school as Mets starter Steven Matz, and also has a similar build.  Kay throws three pitches, and the improvement of his secondary pitches will go a long ways toward determining his future role.

DOWNGRADE

Royce Lewis, SS, MIN – Considered one of the top prospects in baseball, Lewis has struggled out of the gate for High-A Fort Myers.  The 19-year-old shortstop is hitting just .227 /.323/.273 with seven RBIs and six steals through 28 games.  Strikeouts are up for Lewis, who is not afraid to draw a walk, but his power is down.  While not supposed to be a massive power prospect, Lewis still had 46 extra-base hits in 121 games between Low-A and High-A last season.  Lewis has just four  in 2019, including no home runs.  Add in that he has been caught five times on the basepaths as well, and it is safe to say Lewis has not had the dynamic start he had hoped for.

Oneil Cruz, 3B, PIT – Cruz showed up on prospect boards last season as a 6-6 shortstop with the potential for huge raw power, better-than-expected handling of the bat and some speed to boot.  Cruz has shifted to the hot corner due to his height, big arm and power expectancy, but was off to a slow start after being moved up a level to High-A.  The 20-year-old was hitting just .238/.304/.333 with only one home run in 11 games, though he did have four stolen bases.  Unfortunately, Cruz subsequently broke his foot, and the injury will almost certainly keep him sidelined until June at the earliest.  Cruz is an intriguing prospect but will lose some developmental time in 2019, and his height may always scare off many pundits.

MJ Melendez, C, KC – One of the top catching prospects in the minors, Melendez has been sluggish with the bat in 2019.  The 20-year-old backstop is hitting a putrid .149 through 24 games at High-A Carolina.  Melendez has been punched out 37 times, though he does have 12 walks to his credit as well.  Strikeouts have always been a concern for Melendez, who fanned 143 times in 111 games at Low-A in 2018.  However, Melendez also hit .251 and tallied 19 home runs and 73 RBIs, which made the strikeouts much more palatable.  That has not been the case through one month this year, though Melendez still has plenty of time to turn things around as he learns arguably the toughest position on the diamond.

Owen White, P, TEX – A second-round pick for the Rangers in 2018, White has yet to throw a professional pitch in the Texas organization.  Unfortunately that won't happen in 2019 either, as White will undergo Tommy John surgery and likely be sidelined for the next year.  The athletic White also played quarterback as well as shooting guard in high school, but decided to focus on baseball.  The former North Carolina High School Player of the Year has a mid-90s heater and three secondary pitches in progress, most notably a slider.  However, the Rangers will have to wait until 2020 to see how White responds to the surgery and rehabilitation.  Hans Crouse still appears to the top pitching prospect in the Texas organization.