This article is part of our DFS MLB series.
After the first week, starting pitching looked like it was in good shape. But then we got games in Coors, Camden and Texas, which are huge hitters' parks and runs exploded. Then we got the Red Sox and Indians pitchers getting shelled repeatedly. Vegas totals from week one to week two rose significantly along with road runs scored.
That trend has continued through week three to the point where the "J" word is being tossed around. That is a "juiced ball," and I can see why people would think that. If you saw the Dodgers-Diamondbacks series to open the season and how many home runs were hit, the ball was just flying out of a notorious pitchers' park. I am seeing more games with totals of 10 or more than ever. When did you ever see games in Kaufmann Stadium over 8?
All that said, the lack of stability in the starting pitching market has made cash games in DFS a risky proposition, so much that I have completely backed off until I can get a handle on it.
Let's look at under-the-radar starting pitchers who can get you into the win column.
(Salaries and DFS Data is from DraftKings.)
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Matthew Boyd, Tigers
For the better part of a year, Boyd has been a good pitcher flying under the radar. That is all about to change, as he has gotten off to a hot start in 2019. The Tigers are 9-1 in his last 10 home
After the first week, starting pitching looked like it was in good shape. But then we got games in Coors, Camden and Texas, which are huge hitters' parks and runs exploded. Then we got the Red Sox and Indians pitchers getting shelled repeatedly. Vegas totals from week one to week two rose significantly along with road runs scored.
That trend has continued through week three to the point where the "J" word is being tossed around. That is a "juiced ball," and I can see why people would think that. If you saw the Dodgers-Diamondbacks series to open the season and how many home runs were hit, the ball was just flying out of a notorious pitchers' park. I am seeing more games with totals of 10 or more than ever. When did you ever see games in Kaufmann Stadium over 8?
All that said, the lack of stability in the starting pitching market has made cash games in DFS a risky proposition, so much that I have completely backed off until I can get a handle on it.
Let's look at under-the-radar starting pitchers who can get you into the win column.
(Salaries and DFS Data is from DraftKings.)
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Matthew Boyd, Tigers
For the better part of a year, Boyd has been a good pitcher flying under the radar. That is all about to change, as he has gotten off to a hot start in 2019. The Tigers are 9-1 in his last 10 home starts as an underdog. Talk about value in DFS! Also, they are 12-3 overall in his last 15 home starts.
Another good thing about Boyd is the number of innings he averages per start. In his last 19 outings, he has lasted less than five innings three times. His price tag has gone from $6,700 to $8,700, but there is still value in Boyd until he surpasses $10,000.
Joe Musgrove, Pirates
Musgrove was a favorite late-round sleeper in season-long drafts. It is all a matter of him staying healthy. For DFS, we just care about his start that night. He has put up 32.75 fantasy point against the Reds and 22.65 versus the Cubs in 2019.
Since May 2018, the Pirates are 2-7 in his road starts, but 7-5 in 12 home starts and 5-1 over his last six. The Pirates in general play low-scoring close games, so Musgrove never gets blown up. He has only walked more than three batters three times in 21 starts with the Pirates.
Max Fried, Braves
Fried only has 11 starts for the Braves, but he keeps getting better with each outing. In those 11 starts, his K/9 was 9.2, but the BB/9 was 4.3. The key with Fried has been limiting the walks, and he has done that is both starts this year (nine strikeouts, one walk).
Fried was a 2012 first-round pick with San Diego (seventh overall) and the best high school arm in that draft. Perhaps most impressive, he went into Coors and held his own. He isn't at the level of a Boyd or Musgrove, but when looking for an upside SP2 on DraftKings I'm on board.
Caleb Smith, Marlins
While Smith might have limited value in season-long roto leagues because of the lack of wins; his value on DraftKings is strong because the win represents only a small portion of the total points. Smith has posted 20.25, 17.9, and 27.1 points in three starts this year. His salary has been $7,600-$8,300. While it is bound to rise even more, there is still time to use him as a SP2.
Smith has started 18 games for the Marlins and they are 10-8 in those starts. While that might not seem great, think about who the Marlins are. They are a .350 team at best in the last year. Plus, like I said, wins are not the end all be all. Strikeouts are the most important stat for a pitcher in DFS and Smith has a 10.4 K/9 with the Marlins. But if you look at more recent samples, they are 5-2 in his last seven starts and 7-3 in his last 10 starts. These are incredible numbers for a team that will win 50-60 games this season.
Brad Keller, Royals
Another pitcher on a bad team? Yep, but when you dig into the numbers, much like Smith, we find that value needed in DFS for a low-owned pitcher with upside. Keller has 24 starts with the Royals and they are 12-12 in those starts. Again, the Royals are the one of the worst teams in the league, yet .500 in Keller's starts.
They are 9-4 in 13 home starts with Keller. That's the real hidden value, GG. (If you don't know that movie quotes, I'm sorry for you). They were only favored in three of 13 starts, so the ownership will be extremely low on Keller.
He has had four starts this season, two decent and two not-so decent. His first outing against the White Sox saw him score 27.95 points at a $4,800 salary! His price tag jumped to $7,000 against the Twins and he only scored 11.5. He came back on April 12 against a weak Indians lineup and put up 31.6. Keller is a great value pitcher at home against weaker lineups.
