MLB Barometer: Breaking the Bubble

Lately, I have realized that I view, write and talk about fantasy sports in a bubble. I'm not the most successful or experienced player, but like anybody who has ever had a team of their own, I am myopic. My focus is centered on leagues and formats that are most important to me -- the NFBC, Tout Wars, LABR -- and that is simply too narrow.

Drawing from the experiences in those leagues is often valuable, and perhaps it's OK to have a 15-team mixed league as the baseline for analysis, but it's easy to lose sight of the large volume of leagues that have fewer teams, and fewer starting roster spots. Even the rotisserie-centric nature of my analysis might skew away from a large portion of the audience.

To be clear, this isn't a call for anybody to "dumb down the analysis" or to only focus on smaller player pools. It's merely an acknowledgment that there is still plenty of work to be done in helping a greater number of readers and listeners win their leagues.

This season, members of the RotoWire staff have been joining the Fantasy Baseball community on Reddit each Tuesday to host regular AMA (Ask Me Anything) sessions.

Taking the time to do that has been beneficial for me as it's helped me get a better pulse of what other players, in a wider variety of league formats, are thinking about doing with their rosters -- this can be done with the RotoWire Ask An Expert section as well, of course, but unintended consequence has been a clearer perspective on things that we can improve in the future.

Whether you're entering Head-to-Head playoffs, or you're entering the final four-plus weeks of rotisserie season, the end of the 2018 campaign is rapidly approaching.

Closely monitoring playing time changes in the final weeks can be the difference between winning your league, simply cashing, or falling just outside the money.

This week's Risers and Fallers present intriguing skills with uncertain usage patterns the rest of the way.

Risers

Roman Quinn, OF, PHI -- Injuries limited Quinn to 45 games at Triple-A last season, but he posted a 106 wRC+ for Lehigh Valley, while swiping 10 bases in 14 attempts. A few years ago, I saw Quinn play in the Arizona Fall League, and he looked the part of a speedy switch-hitter with the plate skills necessary to control the strike zone effectively and get on base enough to make an impact with his legs. I overheard a scout say that he wasn't on Quinn because he didn't think he could bunt, which seemed like a silly reason to write off a player who has demonstrated the patience to draw walks.

Entering Wednesday, Quinn had started three of the Phillies' previous five games, taking a turn in each of the three outfield spots along the way. With Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, and Nick Williams locked in as the three primary outfielders for the foreseeable future, Quinn currently has a more obstructed path to everyday at-bats than Greg Allen in Cleveland. Thanks to his defensive versatility, Quinn might be able to find three starts per week the rest of the way (and in 2019), with the hope of yielding 25-30 steals in a 350-400 PA arrangement.

Tyler White, 1B, HOU -- The Astros recently welcomed back George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa from the DL, and with Marwin Gonzalez on a 2017-esque heater, White is now in an ongoing competition with Yulieski Gurriel and Evan Gattis for playing time at first base and DH. Since Gattis only DHs, White could theoretically overtake Gurriel as the primary first baseman, but the two hotter bats of the trio might end up getting the bulk of the starts the rest of the way.

If you asked me to identify a player who might have a run of success akin to Jesus Aguilar's 2017 and 2018 output, White would be my answer. White has walked more than he's struck out in three of the four seasons he's appeared in the PCL, and he's been at least 25 percent better than a league average hitter (in terms of wRC+) at every stop in his professional career, other than his 2016 stint with the Astros. This is the final season in which White has minor-league options remaining, which will force Houston to keep him on the 25-man roster in 2019, or flip him elsewhere, unless they want to expose him to waivers (he would almost certainly be claimed).

Since the start of the second half, Evan Gattis (81 wRC+), and Gurriel (51 wRC+) haven't hit enough to justify regular playing time in the final month, which leaves the door wide open for White to make an impact in a large number of formats if he's starting five-plus games each week.

Mitch Garver, C, MIN -- It doesn't take much to get me excited about a new catcher. Garver has turned into one of the more consistent 2018 pickups behind the plate, hitting .276/.344/.447 (113 wRC+) with five homers, 24 RBI and 22 runs since the start of June (190 plate appearances). He spent most of last season at Triple-A Rochester, hitting .291/.387/.541 with 17 homers, 45 RBI and 56 runs scored (159 wRC+) in just 88 games, and while he was a 26-year-old posting those numbers, it was the International League instead of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which makes the results a bit more impressive. He's still very low-owned in single-catcher leagues, and by most accounts, he's good enough defensively to avoid falling into the smaller side of a timeshare.

German Marquez, SP, COL -- Marquez and teammate Kyle Freeland have been pitching very well in the second half, and while the elephant in the room remains (the home park), the list of Colorado starting pitchers worth rostering the rest of the way (or in 2019) might be longer than just Jon Gray. For the season, Marquez has an even worse ERA at home in 2018 (5.77) than he did a year ago (4.59). Over his last 10 starts, Marquez has a 10.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and 0.81 HR/9 (51.8% GB%), which has led him to a 6-1 record with a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. During the back half of this 10-start stretch, Marquez has been throwing fewer fastballs in exchange for more sliders. Both of his breaking pitches -- his curveball and slider -- have generated whiffs at least 40 percent of the time this season, which may cause hitters to struggle to make a significant adjustment.

Alex Cobb, SP, BAL -- Don't close the tab just yet. Cobb has a 2.15 ERA over his last seven starts, and while the strikeout rate hasn't been anything special during that time (6.1 K/9), he's limiting the free passes (2.4 BB/9) and long balls (0.59 HR/9) effectively. The turnaround can be attributed to the return of his splitter (a.k.a. 'The Thing'). Make no mistake, the current version of the Orioles are rubbish as far as run support and bullpen help are concerned, but Cobb can actually deliver a valuable number of well above average innings the rest of the way now that he's got his best pitch working again.

Alex Cobb hurls six strong innings in the Bronx. #Birdlandpic.twitter.com/ZCg5lZlsrf

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) August 2, 2018

Jose Leclerc, RP, TEX -- In terms of WAR, LeClerc has been a top-five reliever in the second half of the season. While that timeframe includes samples of less than 20 innings for regular bullpen contributors, he's doing everything possible to make his case to keep the Rangers' closer role to begin 2019. After getting whiffs with his slider 50.5 percent of the time in 2017, LeClerc has spiked the usage of that offering to a career-high 43.7% rate -- and it's been even more effective, topping out with a 56.4% whiff rate in 2018. Additionally, he throws an occasional changeup and curveball, providing two more small wrinkles to keep hitters off balance.

For the season, LeClerc has dropped his hard-hit rate from 29.9% to 19.1%, while cutting his walk rate from 20.0% in 2017 to 11.5% in 2018 -- with further improvement in the second half (four walks against 62 batters faced; 6.5% BB%). The Rangers are winning enough to generate ample save chances, as there are only seven closers with more saves in the second half than LeClerc's seven during that span. Skills-wise, he's trending in the direction of becoming a future top-10 closer.

Fallers

Eddie Rosario, OF, MIN -- When 2018 ends, Rosario will likely finish with final numbers that are slightly better than his 2017 breakout. He's featured here because of a stretch that simply appears to be part of the typical ebbs and flows of a long season. Among qualified hitters, Rosario ranks 161st out of 170 players in wRC+ in the second half of 2018 (55, entering play Wednesday). He's posted a .229/.257/.333 line during that stretch, but despite the overall struggles, he's still kept a K% under 20 percent. Looking to the future, Rosario should inch up from his 2018 ADP (125.1), probably cracking the Top 100 overall despite the downturn in production over the last four weeks.

Greg Bird, 1B, NYY -- I'm taking the 'L' here. At least, I'm lowering the ceiling and no longer expecting a slash line anywhere near the .261/.343/.529 he put together in his 2015 debut. Bird has 20 homers in 462 trips to the plate since the start of 2017, but he's been below the Mendoza line with a sub-.300 OBP. To make matters worse, he's not roping doubles, or doing anything to suggest that a big turnaround is on the horizon. As Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs pointed out, Bird's exit velocity in August has bottomed out. Subsequently, it's easy to wonder if Bird, who has lost a full season to shoulder surgery, and parts of two others to major ankle injuries, is playing through another malady.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees flipped Tyler Austin to the Twins, only to acquire Luke Voit from the Cardinals. Perhaps the Yankees see something more in Voit, even though both players look like small-side platoon mashers at first glance. In any case, he's enough of a threat to push Bird aside for playing time the rest of the way, and perhaps beyond, assuming the Yankees don't make a push for a bigger upgrade during the winter.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, TOR -- With the Jays' addition of Billy McKinney, Hernandez's playing time has dipped in recent weeks. Entering play Wednesday, he had started four of the team's last eight games (McKinney started seven times in that span). Since the All-Star break, Hernandez has struggled to make contact, posting a 44.3% K% with a .196/.279/.355 line (71 wRC+) over 32 games. For the season -- his first full MLB campaign -- Hernandez is hitting .241/.300/.470 with a 31.1% K% and 7.3% BB%. While he's provided cheap pop with 18 homers, he's struggled as a basestealer (3-for-7), and it's easy to wonder if big-league pitchers have figured him out since his first-half marks (.257/.308/.510, 26.2% K%) were much better. Hernandez remains intriguing if he can make adjustments, as he ninth in barrel rate among qualified hitters (min. 150 batted-ball events).

Dylan Bundy, SP, BAL -- Last month, I wanted my favorite team (the Brewers) to pony up a package of prospects to the Orioles for Bundy or Kevin Gausman, but my preference at that time was Bundy. Things started to unravel in July, but I was writing that off as noise. Bundy has allowed 16 homers over his last nine starts (44.2 innings). The result of a 3.22 HR/9 over a stretch that long has been an 8.87 ERA. In the 15 starts from March through the end of June, Bundy had a 3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 108 strikeouts in 96 innings (18 homers, 1.69 HR/9). Why did things get so much worse? The answer appears to be fastball command and perhaps, a case of pitch tipping, as 19 of the 34 homers he's allowed this season have come against his four-seamer (which he's thrown just over 50 percent of the time) while six homers have been hit against his changeup (which he's thrown less than 10 percent of the time).

Bundy's slider remains an elite offering (50.8% whiff rate, .170 BAA, .345 SLG against), but he appears to be in dire need of major adjustments with his fastball this winter.

Lance McCullers, RP, HOU -- The Astros have announced that McCullers will return as a member of the bullpen, once he's ready to come off the DL in September. To make matters worse, he might be several weeks away from that point, as he hasn't resumed throwing since going on the shelf with a forearm muscle strain in early August. In some ways, 2018 has been the best version of McCullers we've seen since his rookie year in 2015, but once again he'll finish a campaign with ~140 innings or less (he's sitting at 126 so far). Like Carlos Martinez, the Astros may have long-term concerns about McCullers' durability that would be reduced with a move to the bullpen. Unlike Martinez, McCullers now has multi-year track record of significant injuries costing him valuable time, and the Astros' outstanding pitching depth could afford them the luxury of sending him down a path to the bullpen similar to the use of Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock this season.