Regan’s Rumblings: Guys I Hit On ... And Guys I Missed

Hopefully your fantasy football drafts are going well. It's that time of the year when the sports world gets very interesting. We have football starting soon, basketball just around the corner, and in baseball, we have some great pennant races, particularly in the NL West. This week, we will touch on a handful of players who have rotated in and out of my fantasy squads for various reasons as well as others that I wished were on more of my teams.

Misses

Byron Buxton (OF-MIN)
You will surely see Buxton on many 2019 "sleeper" lists as analysts will point to his youth and pedigree as reasons to invest at least one more time. Buxton was firmly on my radar this spring, having hit .309/.347/.546 with 11 homers and 13 steals after the 2017 All-Star break. I had visions of 25 homers and 40 steals, reasonable numbers I thought if you just doubled last year's second half totals, added a few on each side to account for missed time in July and added more given his status as a former No. 2 overall draft pick. Oops. Buxton has missed time with toe and wrist injuries while hitting just .156/.183/.200 in 94 PA while supposedly healthy playing at the big-league level. He's healthy now, and in the month of August playing in Triple-A, Buxton is hitting .386/.413/.659 in 44 at-bats. He seems to be a lock to return when rosters expand this weekend and should see playing time in the outfield. How much remains to be seen, but why wouldn't the Twins play him and see what they have?

Aaron Nola (SP-PHI)
I continue to regret having zero shares of Nola, particularly in my dynasty/keeper leagues. I honestly thought he was a solid No. 2 type starter after posting a 3.54 ERA (3.27 FIP) in 168 innings a year ago. After all, his fastball clocks in at below-average 92.4 mph, and he's dealt with elbow and back injuries the past couple seasons. Now though, Nola profiles as an ace and top-three NL Cy Young finisher at 15-3 with a 2.10 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. All four of his offerings grade as well above average, particularly his four-season fastball, which had been a below average pitch from 2015 to 2017, but that now ranks as the third most-effective in the game behind those of Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. His walks are down, ground balls slightly up, hard hit rate down, and he's generating more swings and misses. The moral of the story I suppose is to always gamble on guys who were top-10 (Nola was picked No. 7 overall in 2014) overall draft picks.

Scott Kingery (INF-PHI)
There were many reasons to like Kingery this spring:

1. He had 26 homers and 29 stolen bases in AA/AAA in 2017.
   
2. Kingery hit .411/.441/.786 with five home runs and four steals in 56 at-bats this spring.
3. The Phillies gave him a six-year contract with zero days of MLB service time.
   

1. He's playing out of position. Kingery's natural position is second base, but with Cesar Hernandez at second and J.P. Crawford looking like a bust, Kingery was needed at short. Perhaps that's hurt his production at the plate.
2. Triple-A warnings signs. At Lehigh Valley last year, Kingery had a mediocre 0.22 BB/K, and his BABIP was .348.
   
3. Maybe he just needed four months to adjust. Kingery is batting .286/.323/.536 in August, though he's also walked just twice, and he's had several "DNPs" in his game logs.

Buster Posey (C-SF)
I guess this was inevitable. A down year and now hip surgery for a catcher with a log of mileage on him. Posey had played in at least 140 games for the previous six seasons, with his games at catcher ranging from 99 to 123 in those seasons (2012-2017). Posey will miss the rest of this season, and if his return date is more on the outer ranger of his estimated six- to eight-months timetable, he'll also miss the first part of 2019. Posey is a career .306/.375/.465 hitter, and with three World Championships, a Rookie of the Year trophy, an NL MVP award, and four Silver Sluggers, Posey is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. His power has dropped consistently the past several years, as after putting up a .213 ISO in 2012, Posey is down to 0.98 in 2018. He did hit .320 last year and a solid .284/.359/.382 this year, so it's not like he's useless. It's too early to conclude that the Giants will move him off catcher this offseason, but it's a definite possibility, hurting his longer-term (2020-plus) fantasy outlook.

Jake Lamb (3B-ARI)
Lamb has failed to build off last year's 30-105 season, as he's batting just .222/.307/.348. In hindsight, perhaps this wasn't difficult to see coming. He's a career .247 hitter with a 25.4 K percentage, so the low batting average isn't a huge surprise. He also hit just .144 versus LHP last year and .164 the year before, but after a .938 OPS against RHP in 2017, he's at just .702 against them this year. The main issue to me is probably the shoulder. Lamb underwent rotator cuff surgery a couple weeks ago and will miss the rest of the season. He first injured the shoulder on April 2 and hasn't been the same since. Maybe he'll return 100 percent and hit 30 homers in 2019, but I'm not counting on it.

Ian Happ (INF/OF-CHC)
I thought we'd see more growth from the 24-year-old this year after he hit .253/.328/.514 last year as a rookie. The batting average isn't a huge surprise, but the drop in his ISO from .261 to .174 is disappointing to be sure. On the plus side, he's walked in 15.3 percent of his PAs, but that's been negated by a 36 K percentage. It's amazing to see a guy with a .370 BABIP hitting just .238. Maybe he needs glasses, as Happ's swinging strike rate of 15.2 percent is far higher than the 10.6 percent league average. Given his youth (his birthday was on August 12), we can't write him off just yet, but that strikeout rate is obviously a huge concern.

Luis Castillo (SP-CIN)
The hype this spring was real. After 15 starts of a 3.12 ERA in 2017 that included a 9.9 K/9 and fastball that averaged a whopping 97.5 mph, Castillo was on a lot of sleeper lists. Castillo has stayed healthy enough to make 26 starts this year, but the 5.07 ERA is a massive disappointment, and he's lost nearly two mph off his fastball. On the plus side, Castillo has improved his BB/9 from 3.2 to 2.7 year over year, but the strikeouts are down, and his GB percentage is way down, from 58.8 to 44. It seems like he's still learning to harness his stuff. Even in 2016 in High-A, his K/9 was just 7.0, though he did improve it to 9.1 in Double-A last year. Maybe something will click at some point, but I'll probably avoid him next year. (Meaning, "Grab him, he's going to win the NL Cy Young.")

Blake Snell (SP-TB)
Trading Snell for chump change in a dynasty league in 2017 hasn't worked well. To be fair, however, he was a frustrating guy to own when I traded him. Snell has improved across the board this year:

K/9 – 8.3 to 10.4
BB/9 – 4.1 to 3.3
ERA – 4.04 to 2.05
Avg. fastball velocity – 94.3 mph to 95.7 mph
Swinging strike rate – Big increase from 10.8 to 14.1 percent

With a 3.26 FIP and 3.44 xFIP, no one can honestly predict a low 2s ERA going forward, but adding velocity at the same time a guy improves his control is pretty helpful. I'm a Snell guy.
Hits

Trevor Bauer (SP-CLE)
Bauer could return from his ankle injury as early as mid-September, which could leave him in line for three starts to take him to 28 total. Will that be enough for Bauer to win the AL Cy Young over Chris Sale (also hurt and has made just 23 starts) and others? If Bauer can continue to keep his ERA in the low-2s, it may very well be enough. I was in on Bauer in several leagues for baseball reasons (increased 2017 velocity, durability and an improving walk rate) and non-baseball reasons (Twitter activity and the fact he's very cerebral). This year Bauer has taken his game to new levels with career bests in the following:

BB/9: 3.0
K/9: 11.6
Swinging strike rate: 13 percent – first time ever in double digits
HR/FB rate: 5.8 percent – sustainable?

Bauer is clocking in at a career-high 94.6 mph on average with his fastball, and for the first time in his career (amazingly), that has been a plus offering. His slider has been devastating, and considering he's throwing it 14.4 percent of the time versus 4.4 percent last year, that's obviously helped. Bauer of course was once the No. 3 overall pick in the 2011 draft by Arizona, who ended up being traded to the Indians who gave up one year of control of Shin-Soo Choo along with Tony Sipp, Lars Anderson and Jason Donald. Conclusion: Indians won the deal. The Indians control Bauer through the 2020 season, a team that incidentally have some really, nice contracts. Look at the deals Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have.

Zack Wheeler (SP-NYM)
I'm a sucker for pitchers drafted in the top-10 (Wheeler was picked No. 6 overall by the Giants in 2009 before being traded for two months of Carlos Beltran). The Giants then went 26-32 after that trade and missed the playoffs before winning the World Series the following season (2012). I don't know whether you can really say this year has been a breakout season for Wheeler, as he was also good in 2014 before injuries hit. Let's compare 2014 and 2018:

2014 total first, then 2018
BB/9: 3.8, 2.9
K/9: 9.1, 8.8
ERA: 3.54, 3.46
FIP: 3.55, 3.31
Swinging strike rate: 10.0 percent, 11.1 percent

I'd argue he's having a career season, but this shouldn't be totally unexpected based on his draft pick and prospect status, plus what he did in 2014. Wheeler is also averaging a career-best 95.8 mph with his fastball. Wheeler is a free agent after next season, and another year like this one and he's going to get $100M-plus.

Jesus Aguilar (1B-MIL)
I may have gotten a bit lucky here, but I did see Aguilar as a potential 35 home run guy after he hit 16 in 279 at-bats with the Brewers last year. He's always shown consistent minor league power, but I did wonder whether he'd ever hit more than .260. Well this year he's at .275/.357/.550, as he's improved his K percentage from 30.2 to 25.5, and his BB percentage from 8 to 11.1. Those are significant improvements, and he's added 35 points of ISO to his 2018 slash line. Aguilar was feeling the effects of having too many 1B/OF types early this year, but in May, the home runs began to pile up, and his playing time began to be consistent as a result. Improving his BA vs. RHP from .244 to .283 this year has helped get him regular at-bats as well. No reason to think the 28-year-old won't be a consistent threat to hit 30 home runs for the next few seasons.

Mallex Smith (OF-TB)
Smith has homered just twice, but with a .307/.377/.433 slash, he's clocked in at 2.1 WAR with 27 stolen bases. Smith hit just .270/.329/.355 in 282 PA last year, so what's changed? His walk rate is up slightly (8.9 percent vs. 8.2 percent) the strikeouts are down close to four percentage points to 18.1 percent, and his BABIP has creeped up to .380 from .347. He's improved his hard-hit rate from 21.3 to 28.8 percent, which has helped as well. Smith has a very low 2.7 percent HR/FB rate, which could mean that he's in line for more home runs going forward, but that same rate was just 4.1 percent last year, and his career high (minors and majors) for homers in a season is five, so power clearly isn't part of his game. The lefty-swinger Smith has also made huge strides versus LHP this year, hitting .365 against them (.268 last year), leaving him an easy choice as an everyday player. Oh, and if you want to talk stolen base upside, Smith swiped 88 bases in the minors in 2014, and he had 37 last year in 126 games.

Kyle Freeland (SP-COL)
A Colorado pitcher who has been a fantasy asset? Freeland has a 2.16 ERA in his last 14 starts and a 2.90 mark overall, and that may be enough for a top-10 Cy Young finish for a guy who pitches half his games at elevation. As I've said previously in this article, I love top-10 overall draft picks who have struggled, and Freeland was picked No. 8 overall back in 2014. After a fairly mediocre minor league career that included a 3.49 ERA and 6.1 K/9, Freeland tossed 156 big league innings last year, finishing with a 4.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Solid No. 5 starter material but hardly a predictor for what we've seen this year. Why was I in on him? A few things:

1. He was a top draft pick.


2. He is a southpaw.


3. He had a solid 53.9 GB percentage.


4. He has a 2.22 ERA at home.