This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
As we know, player evaluation is just one part of the process in our preparations for the fantasy baseball season.
Almost equally important is knowing the market and spotting market inefficiencies. Knowing how players are perceived among the majority of the fantasy baseball community is critical, as we can pinpoint values at various price points. Weighing realistic possibility against market cost is one key to success. Probability is irrelevant for this exercise because probability will always be priced up by the market.
Finding slivers of profit margin can be difficult, but it's imperative in all leagues, and especially important in keeper leagues, where the player pool has been thinned out considerably and auction costs are inflated. In this article, I will highlight some potentially overlooked and undervalued players who could end up returning profit in 2018 – and possibly make for cheap, viable holdovers into 2019.
There are warts with all of these players, but that's precisely what makes them profit candidates. If they did not have obvious flaws or baggage, they would be more highly (and perhaps more properly) valued by the market.
Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Cardinals
A 29-year-old first baseman who has bounced around to a handful of organizations and has never hit even 15 homers in a season? I get it. But he has always made consistent contact and his batting eye has seen steady improvement in recent years. As far as the power goes, all past indicators from the farm are out of the window
As we know, player evaluation is just one part of the process in our preparations for the fantasy baseball season.
Almost equally important is knowing the market and spotting market inefficiencies. Knowing how players are perceived among the majority of the fantasy baseball community is critical, as we can pinpoint values at various price points. Weighing realistic possibility against market cost is one key to success. Probability is irrelevant for this exercise because probability will always be priced up by the market.
Finding slivers of profit margin can be difficult, but it's imperative in all leagues, and especially important in keeper leagues, where the player pool has been thinned out considerably and auction costs are inflated. In this article, I will highlight some potentially overlooked and undervalued players who could end up returning profit in 2018 – and possibly make for cheap, viable holdovers into 2019.
There are warts with all of these players, but that's precisely what makes them profit candidates. If they did not have obvious flaws or baggage, they would be more highly (and perhaps more properly) valued by the market.
Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Cardinals
A 29-year-old first baseman who has bounced around to a handful of organizations and has never hit even 15 homers in a season? I get it. But he has always made consistent contact and his batting eye has seen steady improvement in recent years. As far as the power goes, all past indicators from the farm are out of the window with the introduction of the new ball in Major League Baseball (yes, it happened). Thirty really is the new 20. The groundball rate is high, but the hard-hit data mostly backs up everything he did last year, both in terms average and power. Plus, any kind of multi-positional eligibility is valuable in today's game with an increased league-wide DL rate.
Brandon Drury, 2B, Diamondbacks
Drury was a sleeper darling last year, but he wasn't exactly a big needle mover, earning a single dollar in 15-team mixed leagues. Thankfully, he made up for his offensive decline on the defensive side of the ball; that didn't help his 2017 owners, but it helps his chances of seeing regular playing time this season. If the 25-year-old can improve against lefties and get more consistent loft on the ball (29.4 flyball percentage last year), he could do real damage. Perhaps Daniel Descalso will serve as the primary option to start the season, but Drury is more deserving and should take over eventually, or he could be traded. Don't be the one kicking yourself because you were a year too early.
Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks
Mentioned during Ron Shandler's opening address at First Pitch Arizona 2017, Walker had a monster year at Triple-A Reno, hitting 32 homers with a .411 wOBA and 147 wRC+ in 133 games. The numbers were inflated by the extremely friendly hitting conditions in Reno, but Walker displayed improved contact ability to go with steady patience, trimming his strikeout rate by more than seven percentage points from his mark at that same level in 2016. He's always had impressive power, and we got a glimpse of what he could do to the new baseball in the majors with the two homers Walker hit in just 15 plate appearances with the big club in 2017. Paul Goldschmidt has first base locked down, but do not let that deter you from considering Walker with one of your final picks. These things have a way of figuring themselves out.
Franchy Cordero, OF, Padres
I'm stealing this one from my friend and colleague James Anderson, who has Cordero as a top-200 prospect and touted him as a viable late-round draft-and-hold target in December. Cordero's strikeout and walk rates have never been good, but he's still just 23 and the power/speed combo is intriguing -- he's gone 10-15 in his last two seasons in the minors. Most importantly, Cordero's defense graded out exceedingly well in his first cup of coffee in the majors as he had a top-30 Outs Above Average mark in the outfield, while he ranked second in Catch Probability Added. The likes of Travis Jankowski and Alex Dickerson don't exactly represent daunting obstacles in his path to playing time.
Anthony Alford, OF, Blue Jays
Like Cordero, Alford has flashed some power to go with speed, but Alford has more speed and has shown a much better handle on the strike zone and thus will be found higher on most prospect lists. He once again missed time due to injury in 2017, spending close to two months on the DL with a broken hamate bone in his wrist after missing time in 2016 due to head and knee injuries. If he can stay healthy in 2018, Alford should force the Blue Jays' hand with his ability get on base. The fact that he's already on the 40-man roster helps, as does the fact that the Blue Jays have Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera in the outfield. Alford may already be owned in your keeper league, but he's getting minimal buzz as a 2018 option, so now is a good time to test the waters in a trade.
Dinelson Lamet, SP, Padres
In this space last year I discussed Robbie Ray and how rare it was to find 200 strikeouts at his cost. Lamet does not have that kind of ceiling this season, but the same general rule applies; buy strikeouts and see what happens. These strikeouts are similarly cheap, but many will stray away given the issues with walks and homers and the fact that Lamet throws two pitches (fastball-slider). That's totally justifiable, but the slider is a plus offering with a lot of spin (.137 BAA, .235 SLG last season), and Lamet told the San Diego Union-Tribune that he was focused on developing an off-speed pitch over the winter. Even with just the two pitches, he may be the Padres' best starter.
Joe Musgrove, P, Pirates
I actually liked Musgrove a bit more before the trade to Pittsburgh, as I saw him as a prototype of the "super reliever," capable of outearning many starting pitchers with 80 innings out of the bullpen. The right-hander was brilliant in relief last year, holding opposing hitters to a .242 wOBA while posting a 21.7 K-BB percentage. Musgrove's stuff played up more out of the bullpen, which is common, but he told Eno Sarris (then of FanGraphs) that he attributes the late-season improvement to mechanical changes made during a brief trip to the minors last summer -- seemingly not your standard "max effort" performance bump. That lends hope to the idea that he can make a successful transition back to a starting role. Thankfully his price is still modest.
Jake Junis, SP, Royals
There is little to suggest Junis could be a frontline major-league starter, and that lack of "jackpot" potential should keep his price down. Junis does not have any blowaway pitches, and he had a middling K-rate last year along with a 5.03 ERA and 1.68 HR/9 on the road. He had a 36.7 percent hard-hit rate last season and the Royals will likely struggle in 2018, but Junis does one thing really well: limit walks. The right-hander posted the second-lowest walk percentage among starting pitchers in the second half, trailing only Corey Kluber (min. 60 innings). When a player does one thing really well, they have a quicker path to big-league success as marginal improvement elsewhere can lead to better results.
Drew Steckenrider, RP, Marlins
Steckenrider's excellent showing in 2017 has been largely drowned out by the noise of the Marlins' tumultuous offseason. The presence of a hard-throwing right-hander with a fun name in Kyle Barraclough (BEAR CLAW) at the back end of the bullpen has helped keep the secret as well. Steckenrider throws just as hard and he showcased better command than Barraclough last season, with significantly better marks in strikeout percentage, walk percentage, swinging-strike rate, O-Swing rate and first-pitch strike rate. Brad Ziegler is still looming, but buy the skills and the role should follow eventually.
Emilio Pagan, RP, Athletics
As always, there was a tremendous amount of turnover at the closer position in 2017. Hitting on even one closer-in-waiting with a final bench spot can save an owner a lot of time, headaches and FAAB dollars. Pagan, acquired from Seattle in November, is not the clear next man up in Oakland, and his extreme flyball tendencies (56.9 percent flyball rate) may keep him from getting the first look in the event that Blake Treinen gets hurt or pitches his way out of the ninth. However, Pagan was excellent at limiting walks last year (1.4 BB/9) and his swinging-strike rate and first-pitch rate support a high-20s strikeout percentage. He has displayed two of the three primary baseball skills that we look for in a pitcher, and the home park helps mask his biggest flaw.
This article appears in the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.
